Air Quality Forecast
The Air Quality Forecast predicts pollutant concentrations two days ahead so that health warnings can be issued before conditions deteriorate rather than after.
Keywords
- Tags: Forecasting
- Tags: Environment
- Tags: Public health
- Stage: Production
- Type: Gradient-boosted regression ensemble
- Sector: Planning and environment
- Language: English
How does our product work?
The model combines readings from fixed monitors, weather forecasts, traffic volumes and the time of year to estimate concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter for each zone.
Forecasts are published openly, with the previous week's accuracy shown next to them.
Overview
Air quality warnings are only useful if they arrive in time for people with respiratory conditions to change their plans. Measurement alone is always retrospective.
The forecast gives roughly a day and a half of notice, which is enough for schools and care settings to act.
Owner and responsibility
More detailed information on the system
Here you can get acquainted with the information used by the system, the operating logic, and its governance in the areas that interest you.
System description
Forecasts are published as ranges, and the model's historical error for each zone is published with them. Zones with sparse monitoring have visibly wider ranges, which is intentional rather than a defect to be hidden.
References
Open data portal, hourly monitor readings and archived forecasts.